The Blues are in a strange spot. They’re 31st in the league with a record of 20-26-9 and a goal differential of -54, tied for the worst in the NHL.
They’re very close to having the best odds to win the draft lottery, and while they aren’t technically out of the playoff hunt, they’re 10 points back of the Kings for the final Wild Card spot, and Los Angeles has games in hand. The Blues are likely finished for this season, and despite that, they haven’t fully committed to a rebuild, though they’re clearly not close to contending at the moment.
They have some good young players and a mix of veterans, some on bad contracts and others they probably want to trade, especially as the playoffs grow further away with each game.
St. Louis’ roster construction has been disjointed over the last few years with a mixed bag of moves. They’re far from alone in that regard. But what has been missing is a clear direction on how to sell to Blues fans, who are hoping for some signal that the team has a plan.
Entering the season, it looked as though the Blues were hoping to compete for a playoff spot, as they did last season. Those hopes have been dashed by inconsistent play and the struggles of core players Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko and Jordan Binnington. You either sell winning or you sell hope, and this season the Blues haven’t been able to sell either. That will need to change in short order, and a clear direction needs to be established.
Of the players listed above, Thomas is the only one who hasn’t been constantly linked to trade rumours this season, but that has changed as of late. Kyrou, Parayko and Binnington have all been fodder for trade board segments across the hockey media and have been joined by teammates Brayden Schenn and Justin Faulk.
In a perfect world, St. Louis would have a clear choice about who to move and who to keep. Still, some of the team’s previous moves have left them in a precarious spot, with their only real option being to retool rather than bottom out. They aren’t anywhere close to being a contender and already have several talented players and a very skilled coach in place.
Therein lies a big problem for the Blues. How do you tell Jim Montgomery that the team plans to sell off its veterans and go with younger players who are still finding their way in the NHL? It probably wouldn’t be popular with the veteran head coach.
The alternative is to continue pushing an aging roster into the playoffs and finishing in the middle of the standings, outside the postseason. Montgomery doesn’t need to look far to find a coach who was stuck in that spot for several seasons: Mike Sullivan, formerly of the Penguins.
Sullivan’s final three seasons with the team saw him try to will an aging lineup over the finish line, only to fall just outside the cut when it came to playoff time. Interestingly enough, Sullivan left the Penguins last summer to pursue a better opportunity with the Rangers, only to end up in the same position he had been in with Pittsburgh.
At the end of the day, for general manager Doug Armstrong, his job isn’t to please his coach; it’s to put together the best roster for the team he can and put the players in a position to win. Adding to an old, slow roster does nothing to accomplish that, and the Blues can’t make that the direction they go.
If there is anything we’ve learned in the last half-decade, it is that teams can remain competitive and retool on the fly by surrounding older talent with fresh legs and young energy, brought in by calling up skilled, speedy prospects. The Washington Capitals proved it last season; the Penguins are showing the same thing this year; and the Blues have to look at that model and see how best to apply it to their own roster construction.
The Blues have some pieces in Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Jimmy Snuggerud, Jake Neighbours, and Dalibor Dvorsky. Now they need to figure out which veterans to keep around to guide them and which to let go to acquire more young talent to insulate the core.
It makes sense to move Binnington, given that Joel Hofer is waiting in the wings and probably deserves the bulk of the ice time. The issue for St. Louis is that they missed the best time to trade the 32-year-old: last March, before the trade deadline, or this past summer.
This year, Binnington’s game has fallen off a cliff, and he is dead last in the NHL with -24.4 goals saved above expected in 31 games (per MoneyPuck). Add to that the fact that he is counting $6MM against the salary cap and has a 14-team no-trade clause (per PuckPedia), and you have a player who is close to impossible to move.
Moving Faulk would also be a step in the right direction, as the 33-year-old makes $6.5MM this year and next and is having a reasonable offensive season with 11 goals and 13 assists in 52 games, while cleaning up the turnover issue that plagued him last year. The Blues are reportedly looking to strike while the iron is hot and are asking for a premium package to move the right-shot defenseman. If the Blues can move Faulk and get a return even remotely close to their ask, it would be good business and could set them on a path to retool sooner than later.
Outside of those two, Schenn, Thomas, and Parayko remain options to be moved, and it’s hard to say whether the Blues want to turn their roster over completely. The Penguins tried to move Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, and Erik Karlsson last year but couldn’t find anyone willing to meet their asking price. Perhaps the Blues will chart a similar course and try to move those three veterans if they get the right price. If not, they’ll wait to see how their own roster shakes out over the next six to 12 months. In any event, St. Louis has to show direction sooner rather than later if it hopes to position the team for improvement in the near future.